1. This year we have experience
This year,more than half of 2026 has passed,we have seen the released of claude fable5,gpt 5.6sol,deepseek v4,grok 4.6 and other powerful models is on the way.And many people using ai for vibe coding,building their product,begining their startup journey.
And besides,the new high of Nasdaq composite index,the soar of storage and optical transceiver stocks,all of this represent the prosperity of AI.
Even We are in a carnival of AI,But today I want to talk about another demension.
2. The other side of prosperity
Because AI is powerful,so most of people think ai can do almost anything,but we forget that the default output of ai is equally to gravitate the statistically likely and conventional pattern without strong human direction.
So if we don’t have our own idea,knowledge and thoughts,we may get many homogeneous product and article.Now we can see many article on the Internet is homegenous.
3.The time of bubble
Another consider factor is the bubble,Major technology revolution always attract speculative bubble,because people’s expectation often run ahead of technological and commercial progress.
In last dot-com bubble burst,many startup company broke down,such as Pets.com,which is optimistic about by many investor,and recently we have saw the IPO of spaceX,and OpenAI,Anthropic is coming,they are all around one trillion valuation.The lagest IPO in human history occur within a short period,and people’s expectation become higher and higher.One day,when a financial report don’t reach people’s expectation or the market find most of AI company only through raise funding to keep alive,may become the trigger of AI bubble brust.
No one knows exactly when,but maybe early maybe later,before event happening everyone is just do guess.
4.Coming opportunity in future
The bubble will bring destory,but will also bring opportunity.In last dot-com bubble,many startup broke down.But in the dot-com boom,many company laid enormous amount of fiber-optic cable,so when they broke down,these fiber-optic cable become idle.youtube,iphone,Android,instagram,benefited from they gain the fundmental infra which pioneer spend most of money to laid,dramatically lowered the marginal cost of data transmission.
And besides the fundmental infra,also we can receive four kinds of leaves:
1.technology
2.talent people,such as a group of research
3.distressed assets:such as server,domain or others
4.infrastructure
A phenomenon recently is that the tokens price has become higher and higher,even deepseek has rise their token price,but when bubble brust,we may can achieve nearly free tokens,which is very useful for ai startup.
5.What we can do
We can build our own product,it’s right,or do other prepare.A typical example is Google,the winner in last bubble.In 1996 a research search technolgy start which became google in 1998.When 2000 dot-com bubble brust,it had already been start for 4 years,and in 2004 Google IPO,it has become one of the biggest winner in last bubble brust.Second,I think cash flow is also very important,because cash flow is the lifeblood of bussiness,the most important things is you best have not only one cash flow,if you only have one cash flow you can easily be vulnerable to external pressure.